CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-24T14:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18362/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in the S in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with an eruption near S30E20. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and EUVIA 195/304 beginning 2021-11-24T13:00Z. CME arrival marked by a sudden increase in B total, which reached 17 nT. Density and temperature also increased during the shock and pileup. The solar wind increased from 300 km/s to 380 km/s during the shock.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-27T21:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-27T13:37Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 561.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 350.223 Acceleration: 1.69244 Duration in seconds: 257324.09 Duration in days: 2.9782881 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.69 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 785.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/11/2021 Time: 13:37 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 57.83 hour(s)
Difference: 8.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-11-25T12:00Z
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